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2021 Jobs Report - Finding New Footing: Uncertainty abounds, but opportunities are still out there

2021 JOBS REPORT an excerpt from the January issue of PM Network.

BY A. WILKINSON

 
 
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Subway station in New York, New York, USA

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The Outlook: The United States logged the worst economic contraction in its history during the second quarter of 2020, as non-farm payrolls—which account for 80 percent of workers in the economy—dropped by nearly 21 million in April. But by the end of the year, the data was hinting at hope: Hiring during October outpaced September by 15.5 percent, according to LinkedIn’s November Workforce Report. That’s still 5.8 percent lower than October 2019 but reason to celebrate for those on the job market.

But the road ahead for the U.S. job market is murky. “Without adequate fiscal stimulus and safety from the virus, employers and consumers will be unable to move forward, and so the recession will deepen,” says Erica Groshen, PhD, senior economic adviser, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA.

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—Erica Groshen, PhD, Cornell University, New York, New York, USA

Job opportunities are hardest to find in industries such as recreation and travel (down 41 percent in October compared with the year prior, according to LinkedIn), the arts (down 32 percent), energy and mining (down 32 percent), legal (down 18 percent), hardware and networking (down 14 percent) and entertainment (down 13 percent).

“But as the pandemic persists, we’re beginning to see layoffs occur outside these industries,” says John Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Chicago, Illinois, USA.

Expansion plans have widely been abandoned until companies can emerge from the fog of uncertainty and more clearly define the long-term structural changes that will occur as a result of the pandemic, Groshen says. Companies will hoard cash and delay investment in R&D and capital improvement projects until they can regain certainty around the competitive landscape and consumer behavior.

The Opportunity: Manufacturing, transportation and logistics, construction, retail and real estate have seen the biggest recovery in open positions since hitting lows in April 2020, according to LinkedIn. And while brick-and-mortar retail may be floundering, companies that sell goods and services are strengthening their online infrastructure and offerings in response to the mass shift in consumer behavior, says Challenger. Those organizations will need digital-savvy project talent to push forward.

Project activity—and a need for project managers—extends beyond those fields. When the pandemic first hit, industries that could transition to remote work—largely white-collar professional jobs—immediately implemented work-from-home policies that became long-term for many. By midyear, three-fourths of professional workers, including project managers, were still working remotely, says Challenger.

While CEOs in North America are the least likely to view low-density workplaces as a lasting change (as much as 20 percentage points less than CEOs in Latin America, for instance), nearly half believe the trend will be permanent, according to PwC. For this year, the abrupt but enduring acceptance of digital collaboration tools and remote work will continue, predicts McKinsey, which means a serious appetite for project leaders to effectively steer everything from the development of analytical tools to change initiatives around dispersed teams.

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PHOTO BY ERGIN YALCIN/E+/GETTY IMAGES. OPPOSITE PAGE, PHOTO BY LIANG SEN/XINHUA VIA GETTY IMAGES

United States:
Geotargeting

Location matters—not only in how many positions are available, but also what sectors they’re in. Of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, Rochester, New York won the top slot for job outlook, according to ManpowerGroup, with 29 percent of organizations signaling they intended to expand headcount in the last three months of 2020. At the other end of the list, Los Angeles, California; New Haven, Connecticut; and Miami, Florida all fell below zero for overall hiring intention. Here are the sectors with the sharpest seasonally adjusted uptick in hiring intention by U.S. region.

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How to Lead People Through Change – Part 1: Intro to the ADKAR® Series

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Ah yes, another elusive acronym for us to add to our business vernacular. If you stay with me on the following ADKAR blog series, I promise this acronym will become one of your favorites. Why? Because it is simple to understand and can make a big impact to helping achieve project success.

Before we get into the details of ADKAR, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the importance of Organizational Change Management (OCM) and introduce you to the global leader in change management solutions, Prosci ®.

What is Change Management

Prosci® defines change management as the process, tools and techniques to manage the people side of change to achieve the required business outcome. Change management incorporates the organizational tools that can be utilized to help individuals make successful personal transitions resulting in the adoption and realization of change.

That statement of a personal transition is a key part to understanding the methodology of change management. If you think about a project, there may be a significant percentage of the project’s success relying on a person changing how they work. For example, when implementing a new PPM tool, a project manager may need to be change how they track and report their project plan, financials, risk & issues log, etc. If they have been doing the same process in Excel or Microsoft Project, they probably have some sort of an autopilot and learning how to use a new system will be a disturbance to this autopilot. Some people may have a little blip when they come across change, others will have a colossal reaction to this adjustment.

Not to throw another acronym at you, but OCEAN or The Big Five Theory is one that I’ve been interested in lately as it relates to how people emotionally react to and process change, based on their personality. The range where someone falls on each of the Openness, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism spectrum could be an important tell of how they react to change.

Change management is getting out in front of this disturbance – anticipating it – and planning to help people successfully journey through their current state to their future state.

Importance of Change Management

Prosci has 20 years of research into Change Management and their surveys have consistently shown that you are 6x  more likely to meet or exceed your objectives when you implement change management. You are also more likely to stay on budget and achieve the results ahead of schedule.

You can learn more about the details and benefits of OCM in Kelly’s blog: Managing Change: Absent Processes Hurting Your Projects Future or check out the recap of our OCM webinar: Change Management Fundamentals.

ADKAR – An Introduction

As mentioned, Prosci is the global leader of management solutions and there are a lot of tools that Prosci has, but the one that I think complements project management the most is ADKAR since it focuses on an individual’s journey.

ADKAR stands for

 
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It represents the five elements of change that must be achieved for that change to be a success. There are a lot of ADKAR resources available outside of attending a Prosci training. Jeffrey M. Hiatt wrote ADKAR: A model for change in business, government, and our community. It’s a short, easy read that can be purchased online.

Lien, wrote a great article that describes how to coach individuals through each section of ADKAR in her blog – Coaching Through Change

Over the next few blogs, we’ll take a deeper look into each one of the ADKAR milestones, starting with Part 1 – Awareness

Article Submissions

Wanted creative writers willing to share their expertise. 

Passionate about a topic? Our members have many skills and untapped knowledge. This is a way to give back to our community if public speaking is not your style.

You can now share them with the chapter and earn PDUs for the time spent creating the article. Articles will be featured on the website and in the newsletter.
 
Please submit articles to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Volunteer Spotlight - Mary Ryan

Certified Nonprofit Accounting Professional (CNAP), PMP, CSM

Mary Ryan started volunteering in 2013 as a financial liason on the finance team while studing for her PMP.  Mary then served as an Associate Vice President and was appointed and later elected to the VP of Finance Role. Her journey continued and served as a VP of Professional Development and later as the Vice President of Virtual Locations which ended at the close of 2020. Mary is currently serving this year as an episodic volunteer. The director at large role is a non voting board position that can act as a mentor, guide and leader of special projects. This role is often used by past board leaders who want to continue giving back but allows the flexibility of scaling back volunteer hours or increasing hours to complete a project.

When I asked her what made her a successful volunteer, it was her skills obtained from running a business which provided the breadth of knowledge to make the projects successful. Mary stated that she is “most proud of her work done as VP of Finance to which helped to stabilize the chapter by using good business acumen and running the chapter as a business.”  

I received so many personal benefits by being involved in the chapter and there are so many positive things that come out of your giving back. Mary expressed, “you get back exponentially when you give your time. We have come so far in the last ten years for the next generation of the chapter. You are able to connect with people on a different level. It’s different types of engagement, professional, friend, teammate, leader and peer.”  Volunteers set goals together, support each other and by achieving goals together, you demonstrate caring for others and watching your peers grow in confidence. As a volunteer you practice servant leadership.

When I asked Mary what she is looking forward to it was the face to face in the future and continued engagement. It is fun to make the connections and friends over the years. It comes from giving back and caring for each other.

Successful project management requires collaborative leadership skills, clear communication, and courage to embrace constant change. I grew these skills in volunteering and helped the chapter evolve to support the next generation leader.

The world and the chapter are changing for the better. Life is a project, make the most of it.

President's Letter - January 2021

It’s a new year, but we still are facing a unique set of challenges. I am still optimistic that change will come, and things will improve this year. The Chapter has planned on a return to in-person meetings late in the third quarter. 

We are still optimistic that this is achievable, but we will weigh the benefits vs. risks before doing so.

The return to in-person meetings means our volunteer needs will increase. During COVID, the Chapter has managed to provide virtual programs with a skeleton crew. Still, as we continue to add additional offerings and return in person, we will need volunteers from the membership to execute them.

Being a volunteer means that you are offering something – something that is not required nor an obligation. Most of the time, to volunteer, means that you are working side by side with others. 

This connects you to other human beings as you are working toward a common goal. When you volunteer, you are making connections.

Our volunteers are busy people. They have jobs, families, and obligations to tend to. They all are volunteering on their own time. If you choose to volunteer, do not overextend yourself to the extent that you will let someone down or not fulfill expectations. Do something that matters. You are choosing to use the time to work for something. Be sure to give it your best shot!

Benefits of Volunteering:

  • Personal development of leadership and other soft skills in a non-threatening environment
  • Peer recognition through interaction and publicity of Chapter activities
  • Development of a peer network within the inner circle of volunteers
  • Participation in special leadership meetings with Chapter officers
  • Potential for succession to Chapter leadership positions
  • The satisfaction of contributing to the Chapter’s success and celebrating it at special volunteer-only events
  • Credit (PDUs) toward certification renewal

If you’re interested in volunteering, then click on the link below to learn more about volunteering with the Chapter.

https://pmiphx.org/volunteer-opportunities

Shane Cretacci
President
PMI Phoenix Chapter

Member Spotlight -- Earl Matthews, CAPM, Continuous Improvement Coach, AZ Department of Revenue

Everyone’s path to project management is a different journey, each path is unique and correct for them. Whether you stumble into project management, specifically plan your career, or just morph into a professional as a lifelong leaner.

I would like to introduce you to Earl Matthews, a new chapter member and CAPM certificate holder and talk about his CAPM journey.   

Joining the AZ Department of Revenue, two-plus years ago made him introspective about his career goals. His skills journey began in the trades then moved into retail loss prevention without formal training or education. What he discovered is that you can apply learning and skills are transportable across industries. So, Earl Mathews explored his new industry, shadowed other project managers, earned his 6 Sigma Black Belt while working in the program office. Earl states that “it quickly became my passion and where he sees himself in his five-year growth plan with the state.” His passion was built by working with teams and people in the lean management system.

Earl Matthews project management path, started with an eLearning module on the PMI.org website to explore Project Management Basics. Earl completed his CAPM educational requirements pre COVID-19. He discovered Ken Roundtree, by attending a session at work, but needed a new path to certify when PMI Global canceled in-person exams last March.

A few months passed, delaying his CAPM certification, but COVID-19 may have poked a hole in his balloon, making him glide but he quickly found a new way for his balloon to soar and regain air. Earl Mathews joined the chapter and the fall 2020 PMP/CAPM study group. He passed within one week of the November study group completion.

His project study plan came together after 12 weeks of intense study, committing 4 to 5 nights a week to both weekly sessions and a study buddy and memorizing the ITTOs (processes, inputs, tools and techniques and outputs). Earl Matthews best advice is to not limit yourself to one type of learning source, so you can be well rounded. All learning sources help fill in the gaps so it will make sense.

What you might not realize is the CAPM certification exam is technical where the PMP certification exam is situational. Earl Matthews said, “the study group was the glue that brought it all together, how it was presented and the presenter. The attendees and dialog participation, with the multiple views of other PMPs situational experience brought it together.”

I could hear Ken Roundtree in my head during the exam, where no textbook would stick. I was the pig and committed to gaining the CAPM certification with only a high school diploma at the start of my journey. So, in the words of Earl Mathews, “your life and goals are just another project” so why not get started and find your critical path to success.